Vermont: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead
The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 54.2% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, while Trump will win 45.8%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 45.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Vermont. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 10.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.