Vermont: 21 points lead for Clinton in latest Emerson poll
Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.