Results of a new poll carried out by Deseret News/KSL were announced. The poll asked participants from Utah for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Deseret News/KSL poll results
Of those who answered the question, 38.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from March 8 to March 15. A total of 500 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-4.4 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 51.4% for Clinton and 48.7% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 39.1% of the two-party vote in Utah. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 12.3 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is significant.