Utah: Trump with healthy advantage in Gravis poll
Gravis published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Gravis poll results
According to the results, 29.0% of participants said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from May 31 to June 1 with 1519 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.5 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 44.6% for Clinton and 55.4% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in Utah. That is, the combined PollyVote is 5.5 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.