Results of a new poll conducted by UtahPolicy/Dan Jones were released. The poll asked participants from Utah for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
According to the results, former First Lady Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump have the exact same level of support, each with 38.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from March 23 to April 5, among a random sample of 600 adults. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 39.1% and Trump 60.9% of the two-party vote in Utah. Clinton has 10.9 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Utah. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.