Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Big-issue index model

The Big-issue model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 50.3% for Clinton, and 49.7% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 3.4 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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