The Trial-heat model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Trial-heat model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.