Trial-heat model: Trump trails by a small margin

The Trial-heat model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Trial-heat model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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