Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Keys to the White House index model
The Keys to the White House model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the best practice is to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton currently achieves 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. In comparison to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.2 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.