Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new 538 (polls-plus) model
The 538 (polls-plus) model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.