Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new 538 (polls-plus) model

The 538 (polls-plus) model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.6%. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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