Texas: 8 points lead for Trump in latest Texas Tribune/YouGov poll
Results of a new poll administered by Texas Tribune/YouGov were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Texas for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Texas Tribune/YouGov poll results
The results show that 33.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 10 to June 19 with 1200 registered voters.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 44.6% for Clinton and 55.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Texas polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 55.1%. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Texas Tribune/YouGov poll.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Texas. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.6 points above his polling numbers.