Vanderbilt University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Vanderbilt University poll results
The results show that 35.0% of participants would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 25 to May 11. A total of 1001 registered voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.2 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.3 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.