Results of a new poll administered by Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 25 to April 27, among a random sample of 800 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-3.5 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.