South Carolina: New Gravis poll shows Trump with 4 points lead

Results of a new poll conducted by Gravis were distributed. The poll asked participants from South Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Of those who responded, 42.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from August 15 to August 17 among 768 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.2 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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