South Carolina: New Gravis poll shows Trump with 4 points lead
Results of a new poll conducted by Gravis were distributed. The poll asked participants from South Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Gravis poll results
Of those who responded, 42.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 15 to August 17 among 768 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.2 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.