South Carolina: Narrow lead for Trump in latest Gravis poll
Gravis released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from South Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Gravis poll results
Of those who responded, 42.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 15 to August 17 with 768 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-3.5 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of an individual poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.1 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.