Primary model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The Primary model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Primary model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 5.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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