PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of participants plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from June 22 to June 23, among a random sample of 843 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 54.7% for Clinton and 45.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Wisconsin. Relative to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is insignificant.