PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that 44.0% of interviewees are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% are going to cast a ballot for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 30 to August 2. A total of 1015 registered voters responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 53.0% for Clinton and 47.0% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.