Pennsylvania: Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest DeSart model
The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.4% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will win 49.6%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 49.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart model.