Pennsylvania: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will win 46.5%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Pennsylvania.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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