Oregon: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in latest Clout Research (R) poll

Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between July 9 and July 13. The sample size was 701 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.7 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Oregon. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 6.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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