Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between July 9 and July 13. The sample size was 701 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.7 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Oregon. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 6.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is significant.