FOX 12/KPTV published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
FOX 12/KPTV poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between May 6 and May 9. The sample size was 902 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 57.3% for Clinton and 42.7% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Oregon. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.2 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.