New Clout Research (R) poll in Oregon: Clinton and Trump in a tossup
Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 9 to July 13 with 701 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, Polly's forecast is 6.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is significant.