OpinionWorksOpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
OpinionWorksOpinionWorks poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 69.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. In comparison to her numbers in the OpinionWorksOpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is significant.