Results of a new poll carried out by CNN-ORC were circulated. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
CNN-ORC poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 18 and August 23. The sample size was 803 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.5 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.7%. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the CNN-ORC poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.