New York: Substantial lead for Clinton in Emerson poll
By Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 52.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 28 and August 30. The sample size was 800 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, you should not be overly confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 60.5% for Clinton and 39.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 61.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in New York. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Emerson poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.
