New York: Solid lead for Clinton in recent Gravis poll
By Results of a new poll conducted by Gravis were circulated. The poll asked respondents from New York for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Gravis poll results
Of those who answered the question, 53.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 4 to August 8 among 1717 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.4 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 59.6% for Clinton and 40.5% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.4%. Relative to her numbers in the Gravis poll Clinton's poll average is 1.8 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.
