New York: New Siena poll shows Clinton with 30 points lead
By Siena published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Siena poll results
Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 27.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 7 to August 10 among 717 registered voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they may contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 67.9% for Clinton and 32.1% for Trump. In the most recent Siena poll on April 27 Clinton obtained only 62.6%, while Trump obtained 37.4%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New York has Clinton at 61.4% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Siena poll Clinton's poll average is 6.6 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 6.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.
