New York: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 62.4% for Clinton, and 37.6% for Trump in New York. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 37.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 61.8% of the two-party vote in New York. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.