New York: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 62.4% for Clinton, and 37.6% for Trump in New York. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 37.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 61.8% of the two-party vote in New York. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.