New Vox.Com model: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat

The Vox.Com model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 49.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 50.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.4%. In comparison to numbers in the Vox.Com model Trump's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 3.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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