Results of a new poll administered by Sooner were distributed. The poll asked participants from Oklahoma for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Sooner poll results
The results show that 29.0% of interviewees are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 53.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 20 to July 25 among 298 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.9 points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 35.4% for Clinton and 64.6% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 64.9% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.