New Lockerbie model: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie

The Lockerbie model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lockerbie model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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