KTNV/Rasmussen published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically won similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
KTNV/Rasmussen poll results
Of those who answered the question, 41.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 29 to July 31 among 750 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.3%. Compared to her numbers in the KTNV/Rasmussen poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.