CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Jersey were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of participants intend to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between May 31 and June 3. The sample size was 1194 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can incorporate substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 59.0% for Clinton and 41.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently achieves 56.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Jersey. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 59.4% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.