Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Jersey were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 with 800 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of New Jersey polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 56.7%. This value is 4.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 59.4% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 7.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.