Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Jersey were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
According to the results, 38.0% of interviewees intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between May 23 and May 27. The sample size was 703 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 56.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Jersey. This value is 3.9 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.4% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. This means that Polly's prediction is 6.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is significant.