New Jerome model in Ohio: Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton, and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the candidates of both major parties have often gained similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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