Kentucky: Trump holds substantial advantage in Harper (R) poll
Harper (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Kentucky were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Harper (R) poll results
The results show that 36.0% of interviewees will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 49.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 31 to August 1 with 500 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 42.4% for Clinton and 57.7% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 58.3% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.6 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.