New Hampshire: Healthy advantage for Clinton in recent WMUR/UNH poll

WMUR/UNH published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

New Hampshire is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Of those who responded, 45.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from August 20 to August 28. A total of 433 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-4.7 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.6% for Clinton and 44.4% for Trump. To compare: 61.7% was gained by Clinton in the WMUR/UNH poll on April 27, for Trump this number was only 38.3%.

Results compared to other polls

Looking at an average of New Hampshire polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.8%. Compared to her numbers in the WMUR/UNH poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.