New Hampshire: Clinton and Trump virtually tied in new DeSart model
The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.5% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will win 49.5%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 49.6% of the vote.
New Hampshire is traditionally a swing state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart model.