New DeSart model in Iowa: Trump and Clinton in a tossup
The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 50.6% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will win 49.4%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Iowa is traditionally a purple state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Iowa.