Nevada: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in latest DeSart model

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump in Nevada. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 49.0% of the vote.

In Nevada, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, you should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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