Nevada: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new KTNV/Rasmussen*KTNV-13* poll
By KTNV/RasmussenKTNV-13 published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Nevada, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
KTNV/RasmussenKTNV-13 poll results
Of those who answered the question, 41.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 29 to July 31 among 750 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.3%. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the KTNV/RasmussenKTNV-13 poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.
