Nevada: Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in latest Jerome model

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump in Nevada. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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