Suffolk University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically won similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is considered important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Suffolk University poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of interviewees indicated that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 15 and August 17. The sample size was 500 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they can contain substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 51.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Nevada. Relative to her numbers in the Suffolk University poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.