Maryland: Huge lead for Clinton in latest NBC 4/Marist poll
By NBC 4/Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
NBC 4/Marist poll results
The results show that 63.0% of participants said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 27.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from April 5 to April 9 among 2563 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-1.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 70.0% for Clinton and 30.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton can currently count on 69.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the NBC 4/Marist poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote is 5.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is significant.
