Montana: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 45.3% for Clinton, and 54.7% for Trump in Montana. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they can include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 56.4% of the two-party vote in Montana. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Montana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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