Results of a new poll conducted by MonmouthMonmouth were spread. The poll asked participants from New Jersey for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
MonmouthMonmouth poll results
Of those who replied, 38.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from May 23 to May 27 among 703 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 56.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Jersey. Compared to her numbers in the MonmouthMonmouth poll Clinton's poll average is 3.9 percentage points better. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 59.4% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. That is, Polly's prediction is 6.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is significant.