Results of a new poll administered by St. Louis Post/Dispatch were released. The poll asked interviewees from Missouri for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
St. Louis Post/Dispatch poll results
Of those who responded, 41.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 23 to July 24. A total of 625 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 48.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Missouri. Relative to his numbers in the St. Louis Post/Dispatch poll Clinton's poll average is 2.4 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote in Missouri. Hence, the PollyVote is 4.0 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.