Results of a new poll administered by Monmouth were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Missouri for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 19 to August 22 among 401 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they may contain large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Trump can currently count on 51.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Missouri. This value is 1.2 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Monmouth poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Missouri. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.