New Remington Research (R) poll in Missouri: Clinton trails by a healthy margin
By Results of a new poll administered by Remington Research (R) were spread. The poll asked respondents from Missouri for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Remington Research (R) poll results
According to the results, 38.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 1 to September 2, among a random sample of 1275 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 44.7% for Clinton and 55.3% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Missouri has Trump at 51.8% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll Trump's poll average is 3.5 percentage points lower. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Missouri. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.9 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.
